A walk on thin ice

The road to Arctic’s bounty is not without obstacles. On the one hand, there are environmental concerns that call for restricting industrial activities. On the other hand, is the challenge of building infrastructure in extreme weather conditions, which may hinder exploration activities and affect the economic viability of projects.
Even the existing projects may face the heat. They are built on permafrost, and in the event of its thawing the same infrastructure would have to be rebuilt. The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2011 stated that due to logistical challenges the Russian Arctic continental shelf might not become a major production area until 2035. While the dash to claim great chunks of the Arctic has begun, there are no preparatory studies to gauge the impacts of such widespread activities on the region that so far remained under permafrost. Being the lesser studied pole, there is no accurate inventory of its ecological resources.
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| | There is no technology to remove a massive oil spill in icy conditions; there are no sanctions on companies either | |
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“The pristine Arctic nature has not been researched yet, and launching any production in the Arctic offshore would kill the natural habitat,” says Alexei Knizhnikov, head of oil and gas ecology at WWF Russia. There are also fears of oil spill, which can seriously damage the ecology. At present, Knizhnikov warns, there is a wide technology gap. There is no equipment and infrastructure to remove a massive oil spill in icy conditions, and there are no sanctions on companies in case of an accident. “The tragedy with the drilling platform Kolskaya showed that we cannot even save people, let alone nature,” he adds. The drilling platform off the Sakhalin coast capsized and sank following a severe storm in December 2011. Though no oil spill happened it brought out the dangers of offshore drilling in the Arctic.
What’s more, the melting itself may prove disastrous for the global climate. The Arctic Council in 2011 sponsored a study to gauge the impacts of climate change on snow, water, ice and permafrost in the North Pole. Some 200 scientists worked on the project. According to their report, the melting of Arctic ice and thawing of permafrost will accelerate global warming further through a mechanism called “feedback effect”.
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| | If claims of all Arctic nations over North Pole are admitted, there will be very little sea left for global commons management | |
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When permafrost melts, it releases carbon into the atmosphere. Margareta Johansson, one of the researchers from Lund University in Sweden, says, “Our data shows that there is approximately double the amount of carbon in the permafrost than there is in the atmosphere today.” More greenhouses gases means more heat is trapped in the atmosphere, resulting in more global warming.
Depleting snow cover also leads to low reflection and higher absorption of sunlight. This will increase atmospheric temperature of the Arctic and induce further melting. “Comprehensive multi-disciplinary assessments for the whole Arctic and with breakdown to regions and localities that would facilitate their sustainable development, can help change the paradigm of life of the local residents from surviving to thriving, and would help protect the environment,” Johansson suggests.

The debate over whether to exploit the Arctic now revolves around two perspectives. The Arctic nations want to reap the riches, while the non-Arctic nations want the pole to be preserved as a global commons, such as Antarctica or international sea.
But so far there have been no substantial global initiatives to decide how to govern the Arctic. This could be due to two major reasons. One, the Arctic has hydrocarbons. Two, its geographical location is unique.
Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, all eight countries bordering the Arctic have territorial claims over the ocean waters. Since researchers have confirmed that the rising temperatures will open up a treasure trove of natural resources in the Arctic, most Arctic nations have submitted claims for extending their jurisdiction in the Arctic territory. Until the convention finalises the claims in 2014, one cannot say how much of the Arctic will come under the international law.
A similar situation of many contested claims existed for Antarctica before the Antarctic Treaty of 1961 came into force. But a provision in the treaty made the claims non-actionable to avoid future conflicts.
If the claims of all Arctic nations are admitted, there will be very little sea worth a global commons management. Ironically, Vladimir Ryabinin of World Climate Research Programme, says, melting Arctic sea ice due to global warming will offer possibilities for additional extraction of hydrocarbons, which in turn will strengthen anthropogenic influence on the global climate.
A warming Arctic will no doubt bring benefits to some, but the rest of the world will have to pay the cost.
After the ice melts

This novel describes a situation that many of us fear will be upon us soon. It is set in a world, 50 years from today. The polar ice caps have succumbed to global warming. The Northwest Passage, the search for which led to the doom of many a 17th century explorers, is now the gateway to a new wild West. The opening of the passage has meant that the Scandinavian countries, Canada and Greenland, are global superpowers.
There is a scramble for the Arctic’s oil resources and a mad rush to explore virgin territories. The United Nations Polar Guard, an international agency that polices the Arctic Circle region, suspects the region is also rife with drug dealing and human trafficking. Nuclear and solar power are now big business. The Polar Guard suspects some of the mega corporations dealing with nuclear power of dumping their nasty waste in the deep Arctic waters.
“Now the Arctic was also seeing dumping. With the whole Northwest Passage open and free of ice, merchant ships could cross from Russia to Greenland, on through Canadian polar ports, and then to Alaska. Which also meant they crossed over some very deep Arctic water. As nuclear power boomed across Eurasia and the Americas, with smaller corporations offering small pebble-bed nuclear reactors to energy-hungry towns and small cities demanding an alternative to oils needed in the plastics industries, the waste had to go somewhere.”
Enter Anika Duncan, a Nigerian airship pilot with the Polar Guard. On a routine expedition, her airship’s sensors pick up something conspicuous. Within seconds her aircraft is fired at, killing her co-pilot, Tom. The initial suspect is a ship carrying radioactive waste. Then the accusing fingers point to a nuclear warhead. But there is something far sinister floating around the Arctic Circle, a technology that could alter the geopolitics of the world for good, and whoever controls this futuristic technology can easily hold the world’s superpowers hostage.
Soon Anika finds herself hunted as a criminal and must go on the run. She can only trust a mercenary spy Roo, and an unusual drug lord Violet, and the three have journeys that are intense enough to make Arctic Rising a veritable page-turner.
The swashbuckling thriller wrestles with the geopolitical consequences of global warming on the Arctic north. But unlike some other futuristic literature set in times of climate change, Arctic Rising is not preachy and apocalyptic. Tobias Buckell keeps us enraptured while he teases out a plausible future. His questions are complex: Who will benefit from global warming? Will bringing back the ice save humankind? Will techno solutions to reverse climate change work? What would be the power equations in the new world?
Buckell’s descriptions of the new Northern settlements—from towns in the northern Canadian islands to the polar glacier settlement Thule—are driven by interesting sociopolitical speculations.
“The Arctic still had an island of ice floating around the actual Pole. It was kept alive by a fusion of conservationists, tourism, and the creation of a semi-country and series of ports that sprang up called Thule. They’d used refrigerator cables down off platforms to keep the ice congealed around themselves despite the warmed-up modern Arctic, a trick learnt from old polar oil riggers who’d done that to create temporary ice islands back at the turn of the century. It was an old trick that didn’t really work anywhere else but near the Pole now.”
Thule is privately owned by the Thule Corporation, a consortium of oil companies that imposes minimal rules on the many entities to whom it licenses space. The main rules being that you have a right to travel anywhere in Thule you wish, you may leave Thule whenever you wish, and hindrance of free movement of any other person is prohibited. The Thule Corporation leaves it to each of the leasing demesnes to set up their own political and legal system, so Thule comprises some 40-odd mini- countries. Anika describes Thule as “confusingly and contradictingly, a replication of relatively unfettered laissez-faire mercantilism run amok”.
The global warming-ravaged Arctic is somewhat different. It provides a refuge for an interesting cross-section of the world: many individuals and cultures on the fringes have gravitated to the Arctic. The region is in many ways akin to the early US—a melting pot bringing together people seeking an identity. The laws are loose and there are enough marginalised people willing to rough it out for a better future, a brave new world, very different from Aldous Huxley’s Pavlovian vision.
Amitabh Mitra is a lawyer, painter and writer based in New York