Raining troubles

Little-understood western disturbances have been blamed for most of the freak weather events in India in the past decade. With 50 per cent of its foodgrain production at risk, can India afford to ignore the phenomenon?

Farmers started an indefinite protest at Jantar Mantar in Delhi on March 18, demanding compensation for crop lossThe sight of wheat, mustard, gram and fenugreek crops spread over 10 hectares (ha) would fill Vidyadhar Olkha’s heart with joy. It was end of February and the crops were almost ready to be harvested. A week later, all he had was a mat of leaves and stalks lying on the ground. The rain and hailstorm in the first week of March destroyed 70 per cent of his crops in Jhunjhunu district of Rajasthan.

Olkha has no idea what brought so much rain this March. Neither do scientists and weather forecasters, who attribute the rain to western disturbances and have different theories on what made the disturbances so severe this year.

Western disturbances are low-pressure areas embedded in the Westerlies, the planetary winds that flow from west to east between 30°-60° latitude. They usually bring mild rain during January-February, which is beneficial to the rabi crop. But in the past few years western disturbances have been linked to disasters. The cloud burst in Leh in 2010, the floods and landslide in Uttarakhand in 2013 and the excessive rain in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 were all linked to these disturbances. This year, as per the India Meteorological Department (imd), the average rain received between March 1 and March 18 was 49.2 mm—197 per cent above normal. This caused severe damage to crops in several states of the country. According to a statement by Union agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh in the Rajya Sabha on March 19, crops in over 5 million hectares have been damaged. But despite the destruction the disturbances have been causing, there have been very few studies to understand them.

Scientists agree that western disturbances are formed naturally. They originate in the Mediterranean region and travel over Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan to enter India loaded with moisture, where the Himalayas obstruct them, causing rain and snow in western Himalayas. The snow adds to the glaciers which provide water to India’s major perennial rivers. But what is it that is making this beneficial weather phenomenon increasingly disastrous?

A road in Neemuch district, Madhya Pradesh, paved with hailstones in March (COURTESY: BHOPALTIMES.COM)
Theories abound
There is no unanimity among scientists on the reasons behind the changes in the phenomenon. They offer a number of explanations:

Easterly wave: According to IMD, the severe rain this year is the result of the confluence of western disturbance and easterly wave from the Bay of Bengal. Easterly wave, or Easterlies, blow throughout the year from east to west. The confluence of the two winds happens throughout the year, but the results vary. They generally bring rain only to the northern part of the country but this year states in central and south India also received rain, says B P Yadav, head of IMD’s National Weather Forecasting Centre. Western parts of Madhya Pradesh, for instance, received over 2,025 times more than usual rainfall during March 1-18, while the rainfall in central Maharashtra was 3,671 times above normal, says IMD data. Yadav says the change in rain pattern is part of natural weather variation.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation:Jason Nicholls, senior meteorologist and manager of international forecasting at AccuWeather Inc, a global leader in weather information services, offers a more complicated reason. He says a phenomenon called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) contributed to the severity of this year’s rainfall. PDO is the name given to long-term fluctuations in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. In areas above 20° north off the western coast of North America, cooling is observed during the negative phase of PDO while warming is observed during the positive phase. This shift from one phase to another happens every 10 years or in multiples of 10 years and is yet to be understood properly. PDO influences the placement and intensity of ridges (high-pressure areas) and troughs (low-pressure areas) over the northern hemisphere. Nicholls says that the wet winter seen this year and in 2013-14 was caused due to the impact of a “very strong positive PDO”. The warm waters in the west coast of North America led to a strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada. Another ridge prevailed over the central Atlantic Ocean which allowed storm systems to move through Europe into southeast Europe and the Middle East. A weakness between a couple of such ridges allowed storm systems to move into Afghanistan, Pakistan and northern India over the past couple of winters/springs, he explains. 

Scientists' take

"Our study suggests that human-induced climate change is the reason for the increased variability of western disturbance" - R Krishnan, scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

"The confluence of Westerlies and eastern currents brought rain to far off states such as Maharashtra" - B P Yadav, head, National Weather Forecasting Centre, IMD

"A phenomenon called Pacific Decadal Oscillation made the rains so excessive this time" - Jason Nicholls,senior meteorologist, AccuWeather Inc

"The rain can be mostly explained by natural short-term weather events. There is nothing too unusual or any sign of climate change" - Thomas Reichler, scientist, University of Utah, USA

Jet streams: Akshay Deoras, an independent weather expert based in Maharashtra, says that widely used weather models, such as the Global Forecast System, are consistently showing the movement of new upper air troughs into India. Such troughs in the jet streams (narrow bands of strong winds flowing in the upper troposphere) could be affecting the western disturbances which, imd says, are present in the lower and middle troposphere. One such trough started forming in the upper troposphere over Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan on February 26 and intensified and moved towards north-western parts of India on February 28. This led to the formation of a low-pressure region in the lower troposphere over northwest India, causing an incursion of moisture from Arabian Sea, and produced heavy rains. The rainfall on March 14-16 was also caused by a similar upper air weather set-up. This shows how problematic the combination of western disturbances and upper air troughs can be for India, says Deoras.

But all these explanations are based on climatic phenomena that have always existed. What is making their impact increasingly severe now? A few studies say that global warming holds the clues.

Heating of the Tibetan plateau: A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has directly linked western disturbances to global warming. In a paper published in Climate Dynamics in February 2015, the researchers say global warming is impacting air currents and causing freak weather events. Pronounced warming over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades has increased the instability of the Westerlies and this has increased the variability of the western disturbances. According to the study, the western Himalayan region has seen a significant rise in surface temperatures since the 1950s. Observations from the area show a significant increase in precipitation in recent decades. The researchers looked at a variety of climate data to understand the increasing frequency of heavy precipitation. They say temperatures have risen in the middle- and upper-tropospheric levels over the sub-tropics (area between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn) and the middle latitudes. “Our study suggests that human-induced climate change is the reason for the increased variability of western disturbance,” says R Krishnan, one of the researchers. “The findings are based on direct observations and we are now using climate models to confirm if the impact is human-induced,” says Krishnan.

SPECIAL ARRANGEMENTArctic warming: Another study which blames global warming is by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, New Jersey, and S J Vavrus of University of Wisconsin- Madison, both in the US. The study, published in the January issue of Environment Research Letters, suggests that heating up of the Arctic has weakened the jet streams in the northern hemisphere. The west to east flow of jet streams in the northern hemisphere is maintained by the “gradient of heat” between the cool Arctic and warmer areas near the equator. But the Arctic has been warming since the past 20 years due to which the jet streams have become weaker. Rather than circling in a relatively straight path, jet streams now meander. This is making the South colder and the North warmer. Francis says western disturbances could definitely be affected by these jet streams.

Regional factors at play'
There are also those who believe that climate change is not the culprit. Scientists like Thomas Reichler from the department of atmospheric sciences, University of Utah, USA, do not link global warming and abnormal weather events. “These can be mostly explained by natural short-term weather events. There is nothing too unusual or any sign of climate change,” says Reichler.

Newly appointed IITM director M Rajeevan also does not subscribe to the theory of global warming and says that such events are regional.

“There does seem to be an increase in western disturbances, but it appears to be part of natural variability. A variety of factors could be at play and a detailed analysis is needed,” he says (see ‘Enigmatic disturbances’). Dieter Scherer, chair of climatology, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany, holds a similar view. “It is well-known that precipitation is a highly complex phenomenon caused by processes on a wide range of spatial scales. These highly complex multi-scale atmospheric processes are yet not fully understood and need more research,” says Scherer.

Rajesh Kapadia, a meteorology enthusiast who writes on weather trends in his blog ‘vagaries of the weather’, points out that there is nothing extraordinary about the event and India has witnessed similar weather events. “In March 1915, Delhi received 78 mm of  rain while in March 1945, the temperature recorded in the city was as low as 4.4°C. We have had cold weather even in May,” he says, giving the example of May 14, 1982, when the temperature dipped to 25°C. “There is nothing to worry about as of now, but if this weather continues it might affect monsoon in north India. However, it is too early to know,” he says.

Enigmatic disturbances

There is not much data on western disturbances. According to A P Dimri, professor, school of environment science, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, there has been very little research on western disturbances because most researchers prefer to study the monsoon which is considered lifeline of Indian agriculture. R Krishnan,a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, says that even defining or counting a disturbance is tricky because when western disturbance moves over a long distance, its strength changes and one can never be sure when a new disturbance gets formed or an existing one undergoes change. These disturbances originate thousands of kilometres away and travel over countries where data collection is sparse. India has facilities to study the weather but observational data from Afghanistan and Pakistan is virtually non-existent, says A Jayaraman, director, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Department of Space. B P Yadav, head of IMD's National Weather Forecasting Centre, says that more disturbances are being observed these days because the technology to detect, monitor and predict has improved. IMD is now undertaking studies to understand western disturbance, Yadav adds.

The trends are likely to continue and the country could see a few more disturbances in March and April. “The peak activity of western disturbances is usually seen in January. This year they were delayed and the cold, wet weather could spill over to April too,” says G P Sharma, vice-president, meteorology, Skymet Weather Services, a Noida-based forecasting company. “Rains in April could have huge implications for agriculture,” Sharma says.

Rabi crop accounts for 51 per cent of the country’s grain output and sustains India’s requirements till October till the kharif crop is harvested. Therefore, the winter crop has a significant bearing on food inflation. The fact that kharif yield in 2014 was below normal makes the situation even more grim. And the impact of crop damage has already started percolating to consumers. Vegetable prices increased by 30-40 per cent after rains in Delhi’s wholesale markets.

Losses and government aid 
As states calculate crop loss, there are reports of farmer suicides in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. Protests have also reached Delhi, where farmers have been holding an indefinite demonstration at the Jantar Mantar from March 18, demanding compensation. While the Union government has assured all help, states too have been announcing relief packages. Maharashtra, which has been struggling with drought and is now faced with excessive rain and hailstorm, has announced a compensation package of Rs.7,000 crore. Of this, Rs.4,000 crore have already been credited to the bank accounts of 78 per cent farmers in the state, said a state government press release on March 16. The state has also demanded Rs.6,000 crore from the Central government.

In Rajasthan, Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje announced on March 16 that if the crop loss is over 50 per cent, farmers will get aid and exemption from paying electricity bill. “However, the survey to assess the damage has not been completed. It should end by March 25 and compensation should be available thereafter,” Rajasthan agriculture minister Prabhu Lal Saini told Down To Earth. For the families of the 25 people who died due to the calamity in the state, Raje has announced a compensation of Rs.3 lakh. Relief packages have also been promised by states such as Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

However, Rakesh Tikait, national spokesperson of the Bhartiya Kisan Union, says governments always underestimate losses to avoid giving compensation to farmers. “Compensation is paid only if the losses are more than 50 per cent,” he says.

Farmers' voice

"We will revolt against the Rajasthan government. Instead of hiking the electricity rate, it should make it free, like in Punjab" - Vidhyadhar Olkha, farmer from Jhunjhunu district, Rajasthan

"The agitation will go on till the government agrees to a dialogue. Bhartiya Kisan Union wants to talk to the prime minister" - Rakesh Tikait, national spokesperson, Bhartiya Kisan Union

"I am ready to go to jail if the police come and beat us, but I will not go back without getting compensation" - Rajpal Sharma, farmer and national general secretary, Bhartiya Kisan Union

"Instead of helping farmers with aid and relief package, the government is trying to take our land" - Lal Singh, farmer from Ludhiana district, Punjab

Ill-prepared for disasters 
This raises the question of what could have been done to prevent the loss of crops, particularly at a time when India is witnessing a spate of extreme weather events. According to World Bank, between 1996 and 2000, direct losses from natural disaster cost India over 2 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Without adequate measures to mitigate climate change, these costs could amount to 10 per cent of the gdp by 2100, warns an Asian Development Bank report released in 2014. A few weeks ago, the 14th Finance Commission recommended a whopping Rs.55,000 crore allocation for disaster risk reduction. This is more than double the amount recommended by the 13th Finance Commission.

The situation needs to be dealt with at two levels: a proper scientific analysis of western disturbances to make accurate forecast and a long-term adaptation plan for farmers. Yadav says imd can predict a disturbance a week or 10 days in advance. But there is little one can do to prepare for the effects of the disturbance. The most farmers can do is to ensure that the fields are well-drained and, if time allows, set up nets for protection from hailstorms.

The grimmest aftermath of the weather event is the surge in farmer suicides. And while the disturbances cannot be avoided, effective planning can definitely help contain the loss of lives. For starters, the Centre must prioritise crop insurance and ensure that the existing schemes are implemented effectively. Recent experiences have shown that many of these freak weather events are localised and affect some farmers more than others. By taking averages of crop loss over large areas, as stipulated in the existing schemes, the government fails to help the people who need help the most. Farmers are worried. It is no longer acceptable to consider these weather events normal. The scientists and the government need to meet the challenge.

Walk the talk on carbon tax, Mr Finance Minister

Budget 2015, presented by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, has a first. In it, India has accepted that it has a de-facto carbon tax—on petroleum products and dirty coal. Arguably, the only big green initiative of this budget is the increase of cess on coal—from Rs 100 per tonne to Rs 200 per tonne. But the question is: is this carbon tax, imposed on the carbon content of fuel, doing what it should—reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are responsible for climate change? In other words, is there a design behind the carbon tax to ensure we move beyond polluting fossil fuels?

The budget follows from the Economic Survey, which states that high price on diesel and petrol are important price signals to limit consumption and, hence, CO₂ emissions. In 2014, taking advantage of the global fall in fuel prices, subsidy or under-recovery has gone and the government has increased excise duty on both petrol and diesel. So even though fuel is cheaper, the tax component is higher. The Economic Survey estimates that based on emission factors, currently, India imposes an implicit carbon tax of US $140 per tonne of CO₂ on petrol and US $64 on diesel. This is substantial.

The Economic Survey also estimates that the cess of Rs 100 per tonne of coal is equivalent to a carbon tax of US $1 per tonne of CO₂. It argues that this cess should be increased so that it can lead to CO₂ reduction and also better reflect the health cost of emissions from coal-fired power plants. It calculates that a three-fold increase from the current rate would lead to an annual CO₂ emission reduction of 129 million tonnes—this is equal to seven per cent of India’s current emissions. A five-fold increase in the cess would equalise price of domestic coal with international and would contribute to annual CO₂ emission reduction of 214 million tonnes, which is 11 per cent of India’s annual emissions.

In budget 2015, the finance minister has opted to take the slow road and has doubled the cess on coal to balance the need to tax pollution and the price of power in his words. He also mentions that India’s de-facto carbon tax on most petroleum products compares with international norms. But is this tax an adequate signal to bring about change?

Let’s take petrol and diesel. The fact is that the government has increased the tax on fuel because it is convenient. It will be important to maintain this “carbon tax”, even when the price of petrol and diesel increases in the international market. But it is also a fact that the price of these fuels is lower today and as far as the consumer is concerned, the signal to change consumption is weak and inadequate.

Therefore, not only does the government require to tax these polluting fuels, it also requires to use the tax funds and much more to provide infrastructure to wean us away from cars or using roads to transport goods. What is bad is budget 2015 is doing the reverse. It says it will set aside Rs 4 per litre of the excise duty on petrol and diesel for a dedicated road cess. This tunnel vision of viewing infrastructure for transport as just “roads” is regressive. Instead, what is needed is to reinvent mobility so that it moves goods and people, and not vehicles. The fact is that budget 2015 has recognised that this excise duty is a carbon tax, which is putting a price on each tonne of CO₂ emitted. Now this tax must be used to help shift to less carbon-intensive ways of production.

We also know that the health costs of air pollution are very high. Budget 2015 does little to address this concern. It does not say that the excise duty collected on dirty fuel will be used to upgrade refinery technology so that we can get clean fuel and breathe easy. It is also a fact that even though the government is no longer subsidising diesel, its price remains lower than that of petrol, mainly because of differential levels of taxation. So, even though there has been a decline in the number of diesel private cars being sold, it is not enough to make a dent in pollution levels. Therefore, what is needed is to tax diesel vehicles to equalise the price differential.

This is also the case with coal cess. The government now aims to use this cess to clean the Ganga or build toilets. All this is important but takes us away from the objective of moving away from using polluting fuels or cleaning emissions from thermal power.

What is needed is to walk the talk. Not just talk the talk.

INDIA ENVIRONMENT PORTAL

• Economic Survey 2014-2015

  Report of the expert committee on auto fuel vision & policy 2025

  Overview of India’s vehicle emissions control program: past successes and future prospects

  CSE trashes contention that diesel use by cars is very low
• 
  

How power can be cleaned

Coal is an environmentalist’s bugbear. The use of coal to generate energy is the key reason the world is looking at a catastrophic future because of climate change. Recognising this, global civil society has given a rousing call for coal divestment, asking companies, universities and individuals to stop investment in coal thermal power plants. They want coal to go, renewables to be in. And in the interim, clean gas, also a fossil fuel, to be used as a “bridge fuel”. In this scenario any talk of “cleaning” coal to make it less damaging is untenable.

Illustration: Tarique AzizThis will not work for us in India. We have a huge energy deficit, with millions of households without power for basic lighting or cooking. We have to address access to energy as much as the environmental problems of unclean power. We need to push for renewable—not because we can afford to do without coal, but because this source of energy provides us the option to leapfrog to decentralised and off-grid power. But equally, and perhaps even more important, is to clean coal power so that it does not destroy the environment and take human lives.

This is what my colleagues at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) have done. They have taken apart—quite literally—the thermal power sector in India and plant-by-plant looked at what is the efficiency rate, the pollution load, the management of waste and the compliance with environmental standards. Their findings, published in the report, Heat on Power: Green rating of coal-based thermal power plants, concludes that our plants are way behind the global best in terms of performance.

More importantly, it speaks of the dire crisis in the power sector in the country, where the obsession is to build more plants and not fix what is clearly so completely broken—supply of affordable power to all. Of the 47 plants surveyed—accounting for roughly half the installed capacity in India in 2012—only 12 had efficiency higher than 36 per cent, which touches China’s average. The Indian average, pulled down by dated technology and poor resource management, was a low 33 per cent.

Worse, the plant load factor has been declining in the past few years, going down to a low of 65 per cent in 2013-14, as compared to 79 per cent in 2007-08. This clearly speaks of the mismatch between demand and supply, as state electricity companies struggle to buy power, even cheap power. This then affects the CO2 emissions from the plants. India’s average was 1.08 tonnes of CO2/MWh, 45 per cent higher than the global best and 14 per cent higher than China’s average. Clearly, a huge opportunity for India is to improve efficiency and to replace its existing stock of plants—not build new ones—with best technology.

This is not the only challenge. The fact is that power plants pollute air, consume water and dump huge quantities of waste, namely fly ash. Indian plants have a long way to go to clean up this mess. This is not a small matter. My colleagues have estimated that this sector alone is responsible for 70 per cent of the total freshwater withdrawal by all industries; over 60 per cent of the particulate matter emissions; 50 per cent of sulphur dioxide emissions and more than 80 per cent of mercury emissions. So, if we clean this sector, we make huge gains in cleaning pollution from India’s industrial sector.

Doing this requires first setting standards that are stringent and usher in best technology and management, and then ensuring that monitoring is rigorous and verifiable. CSE has found that most plants either contract out pollution monitoring to third-party laboratories or have set up online emission monitoring systems. But in both cases data is poor and systems unaudited. This is particularly important because no pollution board has the capacity (or authority) to shut down a power plant for obvious reasons.

The biggest issue is gainful use of fly ash since India’s coal is of poor quality. For every tonne of coal burnt, 35-40 per cent is generated as waste. Just consider the scale of this problem: over 40 per cent land area of power plants is used to dump ash. Over 1 billion tonnes of ash is lying unused today and to this over 160 million tonnes are added each year. Everything we have done till date, including specifying the use of ash in cement manufacturing and bricks, is not making a dent in the gargantuan pile of muck.

So a clean-up is essential. But for this India’s power sector must also come clean. The CSE project requires companies to voluntarily share data. It was India’s largest power generator, NTPC Limited*, which refused public scrutiny. This will not build a cleaner future. Ultimately, this is the real agenda for reform.

*Correction made to replace "National Thermal Power Corporation" in web edition

INDIA ENVIRONMENT PORTAL

• Report on fly ash generation at coal/lignite based thermal power stations and its utilization in the country for the year 2011-12 and 2012-13

  Thermal power plants on the anvil: implications and need for rationalisation

  River pollution by thermal plants (Question raised in Lok Sabha and answered on 03/12/12

  Mercury balance in thermal power plants in Singrauli area (2000-2001)
• 
  

Sea that isn't

In just 50 years, the Aral Sea - once the fourth largest inland water body - has turned into world's newest desert 

It should serve as an eye-opener for world leaders and institutions that favour economic growth at the cost of the environment. In October last year, the world saw the death of the Aral Sea—a lake that was so big that it was called a sea.

In 1960, the Aral Sea was the world’s fourth largest inland water body, spread over 67,499 sq km—an area 65 times that of Delhi. Its basin was spread over seven Central Asia nations—Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and Iran. Today, hardly 50 years later, it is a shadow of its former self. According to UK-based online environment paper Earth Times, 82 per cent of the sea has dried up into a desert, Aralkum.

“The tragedy of the Aral Sea is among the biggest ecological disasters of modern times, indeed of human history itself. It is a crime against nature. A man-made tragedy,” says Istanbul filmmaker Ensar Altay, who in 2013 made a documentary on the sea called People of the Lake, highlighting the plight of the sea and those who once lived on its shores.

In the beginning

The Aral Sea is an endorheic lake, which means that although it has surface inflow, there is no surface outflow of water. The inflow into the sea is because of two rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya.

The sea started to shrink because of the ambitious economic plans of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin. In 1929, he ordered collectivisation of farms in Central Asia to achieve cotton independence. The lasting legacy of this social and economic transformation was destruction of traditional irrigation in the Aral Sea basin. In the 1940s, under Stalin’s Great Plan for the Transformation of Nature, construction of irrigation canals was started on a large scale. Many of the canals were poorly built, allowing water to leak or evaporate.

“In the first six decades of the 20th Century, the Aral Sea’s water balance was stable,” says Philip Micklin, professor of geography, Emeritus, Western Michigan University, and an expert on the sea. “The deltas of the Syr and Amu rivers sustained diversity of flora and fauna, including endangered species. They also had considerable economic importance as they supported irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry,” he adds.

But by 1960, between 20 and 60 cubic kilometres of water was going each year to the land instead of sea. Most of the sea’s water supply had been diverted, and in the 1960s, it began to shrink.

In 1987, the sea separated into two water bodies—a small Aral Sea in the north and a large Aral Sea in the south. The Syr flows into the former, the Amu into the latter. In 1992, the local authorities constructed an earthen dike to block outflow to raise the level of the small sea. In August 2005, the dike was replaced by a dam (Kok-Aral) built by Kazakhstan. In the case of the small sea, the dike and dam raised and stabilised the water level, leading to greatly improved ecological conditions. But the large Aral Sea was not so fortunate. It continued to dry up and by the early 2000s had divided into a shallow eastern lobe and a deep western lobe connected by a channel.

In October 2014, the eastern lobe dried up completely for the first time in modern times, according to NASA. The seabed that emerged is now known as the Aralkum desert (see `Dry and barren').

Who is responsible?

While experts hold the former Soviet Union’s economic policies responsible for the shrinking of the sea, they also blame the area’s geopolitics for the death of the water body.

The say the seven nations never really tried to save the sea. The Aral Sea is located in a place which is still Russia’s backyard and where Russian influence reigns and competes with forces of Islamic extremism and Sinic and Western influence.

“The Soviet central government, by expanding irrigation in the basin beyond the point of environmental sustainability, dried up the sea. Central Asian Republic governments supported this enthusiastically,” says Micklin. He adds that post-Soviet governments, including that of Uzbekistan where Islam Karimov is President, continue to support irrigation as one of the key foundations of their economies.

In fact, 2014 saw a string of events in the region’s vicinity—Russian annexation of Crimea, unrest in Ukraine, soured Russian-West relations, global jihad and the continued rise of China.

“All these events indirectly influence the future of the sea. Local governments in the catchment area have a lot of other things to do now. Saving the Aral Sea is not the primary task for them,” says Nikolay Vasilevich Aladin from Zoological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St Petersburg.

Ecological and human impact

The Aral Sea’s disappearance has led to severe negative ecological, economic and human welfare consequences, affecting not only the sea but a zone around the water body of several hundred thousand square kilometres holding a population of several million. The vibrant commercial fishing industry that developed in the first half of the 20th Century ended in the early 1980s as indigenous catch species disappeared owing to rising salinity and loss of shallow spawning and feeding areas.

Today, the sea basin, which was once a habitat for more than 70 species of mammals and 319 of birds, has only 32 species of mammals and 160 of birds.

Navigation on the sea also ceased by the 1980s as efforts to keep the increasingly long channels open to the ports of Aralsk at the northern end in Kazakhstan and Muynak at the southern end in Karakalpakstan became too difficult and costly.

Micklin says there has been continual desertification in the area. Salt has accumulated on the surface forming pans where practically nothing will grow.

Salt-tolerant plants and drought-tolerant plants have replaced endemic vegetation. Strong winds, particularly in spring, blow salt and dust from the dried bottom of the sea on to surrounding land.

Owing to the sea’s shrinkage, climate has changed in a band up to 100 km wide along the former shoreline in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Micklin says.

As a result, maritime conditions have been replaced by desert-like regimes. Summers have warmed and winters cooled, spring frosts are later and fall frosts earlier, humidity is lower, and the growing season shorter, he adds.

The population around the sea suffers health problems. Bacterial contamination of drinking water is pervasive and has led to high rates of typhoid, viral hepatitis and dysentery. Tuberculosis is prevalent as is anaemia, particularly in pregnant woman. Liver and kidney ailments are endemic.

The future

So what do the coming years hold in store for the Aral Sea? Four months after the eastern lobe of the Aral Sea dried up, the Uzbekistan government has finally announced a US $2 billion package to revive the water body. The project will be funded through international loans that will be repaid by the Uzbek government and International Fund for Salvation of the Aral Sea, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

And will this be enough? Micklin, Aladin and Altay agree that the Kok-Aral Dam built by the Kazakh government in the 1990s was the best thing to have happened to the Aral Sea. “The dam has worked better than expected,” says Micklin. Altay adds: “I don’t think it is sufficient. The northern Aral Sea needs to be supported both naturally and economically. Fish species need to be increased and water quality should be under control. But it is costly. I am not sure if the Kazakh government can afford it.”

The billion dollar question remains: Will we be able to see the Aral Sea back in its former glory in our lifetime?

“Doubtful. To accomplish that would require not only major and expensive rebuilding of irrigation networks, but also major cutback of irrigation, which will have harmful economic impact,” says Micklin. According to Aladin: “In the near future, we will only be able to save some parts of the sea.”

As for Altay, he ends on a philosophical note: “We should keep our hope alive. This is the only thing we have.”

Shrinking of the Aral Sea   The sea started to shrink because of the ambitious economic plans of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin. Later politicians turned a blind eye   1860-1900 Imperial Russian empire brings Central Asia under its control 1929 The Soviet government under Joseph Stalin orders collectivisation of farms in Central Asia 1940s Under Stalin, construction of irrigation canals begins on a large scale. Many canals allow water to leak 1960s The Aral Sea begins to shrink 1987 The sea splits into two partsÐ the north and the south sea. A channel connecting the two lakes (Berg Strait) forms, allowing water to flow from the former to the latter 1992 Kazakh authorities construct an earthen dike to block outflow from the northern sea August 2005 The dike is replaced by a dam built by the Kazakhstan government and World Bank 2000s The southern sea divides into a shallow eastern lobe and a deep western lobe connected by a channel whose length grows as the level of the two lobes, mainly the eastern, declines October 2014 The eastern lobe of the south Aral Sea dries up and becomes the Aralkum desert

UPDATED CURRENT AFFAIRS APRIL/25/2015

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  • Siva said that while the number of transgenders in the country is 4.5 lakh as per statistics, the actual number could be about 20-25 lakh.
  • The last time the Lok Sabha passed a private member's bill was in 1970. In the Rajya Sabha a private member's bill was passed in 1969
  Introducing such bill is normal practice but such bills are normally withdrawn,left pending or are taken in other house but this is the first time in 45 years that a private member bill was passed by the house 
  
  
• 7.8 Magnitude Earthquake in Nepal ; 918 killed
  • A powerful earthquake struck Nepal with high intensity between the capital, Kathmandu, and the city of Pokhara
  • At least 876 people were confirmed dead in Nepal Another 34 were killed in India, six in Tibet and two in Bangladesh Two Chinese citizens died at the Nepal-China border
  • Number of historic buildings have been destroyed. Among those wrecked was the landmark Dharahara tower with many feared trapped in its ruins
  • IAF c-130 Superhercules with NDRF relief team  is working in Kathmandu in aid to nepal goverment
• Chilean Volcano Calbuco Erupts
  • Calbuco Volcano in Chile erupted for the first time in 42 years two massive eruptions occurred at Chile's Calbuco volcano spreading ash and hot rocks as high as 6 miles into the air
  • nearly4,000 people have been evacuated  from their homesa s volcanic ash emitted triggered concerns that the dust could contaminate water, trigger respiratory illnesses and ground nearby air travel  
  • Calbuco last erupted in 1972 and is considered one of the top three most potentially dangerous among Chile's 90 active volcanoes
  • The first blast surprised Chilean emergency officials, who were left with only minutes to issue an alert.
  Chile, on the Pacific "Rim of Fire", has the second largest chain of volcanoes in the world after Indonesia, including around 500 that are potentially active
  
  

  
  

  
  
• India has emerged as the fourth largest supplier of generic medicines to the United States
  • India has emerged as the fourth largest supplier of generic medicines to the United States
  • The exports touched over 4 billion dollars in 2013-14 in spite of stringent regulatory measures imposed by Washington. Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilizers Hansraj Ahir gave this information in the Rajya Sabha
  • Friday Indian pharmaceutical companies are exporting generic medicines to Africa, West Asia and European countries.
• Task force proposes setting up of full-fledged Postal Bank of India
  • Task force set up to suggest ways for reviving India Post has proposed setting up of full-fledged postal bank through an Act of Parliament
  • Postal bank that can can leverage its massive network of 1,55,000 post offices as a statutory institution it would have utmost credibility.
  • Its initial capital requirement of Rs 500 crore PBI must be professionally managed and operated, with credit and other risks being handled by experienced experts hired from the market.
  • The postal bank will offer comprehensive financial services including regular banking credit, deposit and loans.
  • To begin with, the PBI should give loans up to Rs 1 lakh and a second loan will be granted only after the first loan is paid back
  This Task force was set up by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in August which includes Department of Posts secretary Kavery Banerjee, telecom secretary Rakesh Garg, Department of Electronics and IT secretary RS Sharma, rural development secretary LC Goyal, former Sebi chairman GN Bajpai, and former Infosys board member TV Mohandas
  
  

  
  

  
  
• 2 Zila, 2 Janpad and 12 Gram Panchayats to receive awards on National Panchayat Day
  • Two Zila Panchayats, two Janpad Panchayats and 12 Gram Panchayats of Madhya Pradesh have been awarded by the centre on the occasion of the National Panchayat Day for efficient implementation of rural development and community oriented schemes.
  • These Panchayats have been selected for awards by Government of India under Panchayat Empowerment & Accountability Incentive Scheme on the basis of distinguished achievements during year 2014-15
  • On National Panchayat Day in April 24, 2015, awards carrying Rs. 30 lakh each will be presented to Harda and Vidisha Zila Panchayats
  • Rs. 20 lakh award each will be presented to Vidisha Janpad Panchayat of Vidisha district and Ichhawar Janpad Panchayat of Sehore district
  The 3-tier Panchayats have carved a new scenario in remote rural areas through planned works for upliftment of poor people and improving rural living standards.

CURRENT AFFAIRS APRIL/25/2015

CURRENT AFFAIRS APRIL/25/2015

1. NATIONAL PANCHAYATI RAJ DAY OBERVED:

i. National Panchayati Raj day was observed around the nation on24^th April, 2015.

ii. The day is observed to mark the passing of the constitution (73^rdAmendment) Act, 1992 that came into force with effect from 24^th April 1993.

2.   NAVAL EXERCISE VARUNA COMMENCED AT GOA:

i.    Indo-French Naval Exercise Varuna-15 commenced at Goa.

ii.  This the fourteenth edition of the 10-day long naval exercisebetween India and France.

iii.  Last Naval exercise between India and France, Varuna -12 was conducted at Toulan in France.

3. CHINA AND PAKISTAN SIGNED AN ECONOMICCORRIDOR PLAN:

i. China and Pakistan have signed an agreement on economic corridor plan worth 46 billion US dollars.

ii. The agreement was signed between Chinese President Xi Jinpinga nd Pakistan’s PM Nawaz Sharif.

iii.  Chinese Spending has exceeded that of the United States which had given 31 billion US dollars to Pakistan since 2002.

4. WORLD HAPPINESS REPORT, 2015:

i.  World Happiness Report, 2015 is published by SDSN.

ii.  Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) is on initiative under the United Nations.

iii.  The report was topped by Switzerland followed by Iceland, Denmark, Norway and Canada.

Note: Report examined 158 countries and is aimed at influencing government policy.